Tesla Optimus ROI Calculator
Would a humanoid robot pay for itself? Plug in a price, how much of the work it can actually do and how fast it does it, then compare it with paid help at home or wages in a business. Humanoids like Tesla's Optimus aren't broadly on sale yet — every number here is an editable assumption.
Payback
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Value created
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per year
All-in cost
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per year, incl. depreciation
5-year ROI
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Cumulative net value
Value created minus every cost, incl. any loan balance still owedCost per effective work hour
One “effective hour” = one hour of human-equivalent work actually done.
Where the year goes
Which assumption matters most?
Change in 5-year ROI when each input moves −20% / +20%Red = ROI falls, green = ROI rises. Labels show which direction of change (−20% or +20%) causes it. ★ = most influential.
Scenarios
Price, capability and speed varied togetherYear by year
How this is calculated
- Work it can do. Home: your chore hours plus paid services (converted to hours at the typical service rate) form the to-do list. The robot handles the capability share of it, and needs 1 ÷ speed robot-hours per human-hour. If that exceeds the hours it has available, value is scaled down. Business: the robot can deliver shifts × shift length × uptime × speed human-equivalent hours a day, but never more than the capability share of the human hours in the role — whichever is smaller is the bottleneck.
- Value created = effective hours × what that hour costs today (your time value / service price at home; wage × (1 + benefits & taxes)wage × (1 + employer on-costs) at work).
- All-in annual cost = depreciation ((price − resale) ÷ life) + setup ÷ life + average loan interest + service & software + electricity (kW × hours worked × rate) + supervision.
- Payback is the first month when cumulative value minus cumulative costs, minus any loan balance still owed, turns positive (resale not counted). 5-year ROI = net result after 60 months, including remaining resale/book value, ÷ upfront cost (price + setup).
- Sensitivity re-runs the whole model with one input at 80% and 120% of your value, holding everything else fixed, and ranks inputs by how far the 5-year ROI moves.
Can I buy an Optimus today?
Not as a consumer product. As of late 2026, Tesla's Optimus and other humanoids are in development and limited pilots, mostly inside factories. Pricing, capabilities, service plans and availability are all unannounced or uncertain, so this tool is a way to reason about the economics — not a quote. Check Tesla's official announcements for current status.
Why does capability matter so much?
Value scales almost linearly with the share of tasks the robot can finish on its own, while most costs (the purchase price, service plan, supervision) stay fixed. A robot that can do 30% of a job costs nearly the same as one that can do 90%. That's why early, narrow robots tend to make sense first in businesses running multiple shifts on repetitive tasks.
Isn't "value of my time" a soft number?
Yes. Freed-up hours only become money if you'd otherwise pay for help or would earn more with the time. Set "your time is worth" to $0 to see the pure cash case (services replaced only), or to your after-taxtake-home hourly pay for a fuller picture.
What's not included?
Insurance, property damage risk, software subscription price changes, downtime for repairs beyond your uptime figure, tax treatment (businesses may depreciate equipment faster)tax treatment (UK companies may claim capital allowances such as full expensing or the Annual Investment Allowance), and any change in your workforce costs such as retraining. Add them to service & software or setup if you want them counted.